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Opening Premier League Fixtures: Pinpointing the Betting Value

July 09, 2019

Opening Premier League Fixtures: Pinpointing the Betting Value

It’s hard to believe the new Premier League season will kick-off in just a few weeks. Indeed, the transfer window will also shut on the 8th August, so there isn’t much time for those teams in desperate need to sign players – or get new recruits bedded in – in time for the big kick-off.

In light of that, can we perhaps pinpoint over the opening couple of weekends to get some betting value? While things might change between now and then, we can also use some stats and no little reasoning to get some value bets with a medium-term outlook. Here’s where we think you should be putting your money:

Burnley vs Southampton – Over 2.5 Goals

Burnley have often been tarnished as a dull team, and Sean Dyche has always taken a bit of pride in that. However, the Clarets’ games yielded plenty of goals last season, with 58% of all matches having three or more goals and 42% of games having four or more. Southampton had an even better ratio, with 61% of games having at least three goals – the third highest record in the league. That would suggest the over 2.5 goals market should be odds-against, but we found a price of 23/20 with 888 sport betting.

Chelsea vs Manchester United – Chelsea to Win

Admittedly, this is a tough one to call, and both teams have plenty of issues. However, unless there are serious changes at Old Trafford, the atmosphere in this opening fixture might be suitable for Chelsea. Even a raft of new signings might not change the bad feeling at United, which has seen #GlazersOut trending on Twitter all summer. United are close to evens to start the season with a win, but Chelsea at 47/20 are surely worth a punt. Frank Lampard will be eager to get his tenue off to a great start by capitalising on the ill-feeling in the United camp.

Newcastle vs Arsenal – Arsenal to Win

Like Manchester United above, Newcastle fans could be more concerned with protesting the club’s ownership rather than thinking about what’s going on down on the pitch. The assessment from Rafa Benitez on his departure was scathing, and the fans are likely to be irate, especially if the club’s best players leave without suitable replacements. Benitez did wonders at the club, and whomever the next manager is must hit the ground running in a potentially toxic atmosphere. Arsenal are quoted at evens to beat Newcastle. Yes, the Gunners’ away form was poor last season against the top teams, but not against the poorer sides. And, make no mistake about it, without Benitez’s steady hand, Newcastle could be one of the poorest teams in the Premier League.

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth – Aston Villa to win

This game takes place in the second round of fixtures, and it will be Villa’s first Premier League home game since August 2015. Villa Park is sure to be bouncing, with the promoted side finishing last term with a wonderful swagger. A lot might depend on Villa’s recruitment here, but there is the nucleus of a good side already forming under Dean Smith. 17/10 for a home win looks like terrific value, even if the unpredictable Bournemouth are capable of almost any type of performance on a given day.