How the stats can help you predict this season’s stunning climax

March 14, 2022

How the stats can help you predict this season’s stunning climax


The English Premier League season looked dead and buried just a few weeks ago. Manchester City ended the last campaign as runaway winners of the title and looked on course to repeat the feat this spring. Pep Guardiola’s men were miles clear of a chasing pack headed by Liverpool and Chelsea, with every three points gained moving them a step closer to that all-important two in a row.

How quickly things change in football and this year has already served as a reminder that nothing can be taken for granted in sport, especially in this competition. Lovers of the beautiful game know nothing’s decided in the top tier of English professional football until all 38 league matches have been played and the points tallied up. True to form, this campaign is back on track thanks to an impressive winning run from Liverpool. The Reds have clawed their way into the title race, and we now have a grandstand finish on the cards.

But which way will it go? Will the Premier League trophy be draped in light blue or red at the presentation? Online sports betting giants Bovada offer odds on the winner of the title, and you can bet right up until the champion has been decided. The odds will be updated after every result to reflect the league standings, and you can place bets or cash-out selections using your Android or iOS smartphone.

Reds gatecrash the party

Manchester City are current leaders and have been in pole position for many months now. They enjoyed a healthy lead, but that has been cut to just six points by a relentless Liverpool who are showing no signs of giving up. Dropped points from Pep and co left the back door open, and Klopp’s troops weren’t slow in trying to gatecrash the party. The league has become a two-horse race, but that’s much more competitive than most of us expected at the turn of the year.

Could we see Liverpool pull off one of the greatest comebacks in English football history, or will that drop in form during winter help focus Man City? They have a game in hand and an opportunity to slice the gap at the top to three points. With company behind and Liverpool laying down a challenge, it could ensure Man City get their second wind and rediscover that consistency that has abandoned them over the last few weeks.

The most important game still to be played this season will take place at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday 10th April when Manchester City hosts Liverpool in a potential title-decider. That match kicks off at 16:30 and will be played before a capacity crowd boosted by the millions of armchair fans watching around the world.

How will the game play out? That’s anyone’s guess at this stage, but we can take clues from the stats and trends associated with this fixture, including the recent head to head results.

Man City v Liverpool match stats

The vital stats attached to this fixture tells us to expect a thrilling 90 minutes of action. The head to head stats stand at 90 wins for Liverpool, 48 for Manchester City and 50 draws. Concentrating on more recent times, both teams have found the net in each of the last three renewals and in six of the last seven. The most recent clash ended in a 2-2 draw at Anfield earlier this season when goals from Mane and Salah were cancelled out by Foden and De Bruyne. Liverpool have been the host team for each of the last two games, but the last time the rivals met in Manchester, it ended 1-1. Goals from Salah and Jesus ensured the teams shared the points on that occasion.

Seeking out a goalscorer prediction, we worked through the stats and scribbled down the name Salah as he has scored in each of his last three games against City and in four of his last five. What about the result? Well, a draw would suit Man City much more than it would Liverpool, and we’ve seen two of the last three finish level.